Friday 4/14, Monday 4/17 Recap

Well, there isn't much to recap from Friday, as the markets were closed. I had a feeling they would be, but had a limit buy order in anyway, an order that got filled Friday morning. I did 2 things I intended not to do: trade on a day when the market was closed and let a position stay open through the weekend. Anyway, it worked out well, as the position closed at my T/P of 20 pips on Monday morning.

The GBP/USD pair made a serious bullish break on Monday, spurred in part, according to 4Cast by

1. TICS data for February - for whether there is "sufficient" foreign capital to finance the US deficit
   
2. tomorrow's Fed FOMC For March 27-28 - the first meeting under new Chairman Ben Bernanke - for signals as when Fed will pause - 4.75% or 5.00%
   
3. Wednesday's US CPI for March for indications of inflation
   
4. Thursday April 20 Summit between Chinese Pres Hu Jintao and US Pres George Bush
   

The pair first tested the 50.0 Fib before finally breaking through, and then extending up through the 61.8 Fib. With a 1.7448 high, the Sterling hasn't seen this level of price since late January. The pair is also looking to be breaking out of a yearlong consolidation. Of course, we'll need confirmation of this, but 4Cast says the Cable has exceeded its 200 DMA.

I'm not sure what kind of long-term support the Cable will have at the 61.8 Fib, but it does have support at the 1.7625 - 1.7500 range, which marked the high for the range the pair traded in since late January. This week will be busy with fundamental data, starting with tomorrow's Building Permits, Housing Starts, and PPI at 8:30 EST. Also, tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 EST the FOMC Meeting Minutes from the March 28 meeting will be released.

I'm going bullish tomorrow, hoping to capitalize on any "afterglow" good feelings early by buying at 1.7720 and looking to take profit at 1.7740, slightly lower than Monday's high. The S/L will be at 1.7700. Hopefully this will get me out of the market before the news hits.

Recap From Last Week:

4 Trades, 3 Winners, +40 pips

Recap Since Inception (4/1/06):

8 Trades, 4 Winners -9.5 pips